Event #41 update, Event #46 tomorrow

Hello everyone. I apologize for the delay in the event 41 update. The Rio charges an arm and a leg for daily internet service so I pick and choose the days which I choose to pay. Haha. The event on Friday didn’t last very long for me. Since the buyin was 3000, we received twice as many starting chips as we do in the 1500 buyin events. The structure changes a little though. In the 1500 buyin, the blinds start at 25/25 and in aany event with a buyin above 1500, the blinds start at 25/50. So, we get more play as far as starting chips, but the event skips one level. Anyhow, it’s still a great structure and 9000 is a great amount to start with. Cy and Gregg also took part in the event.

I was surprised that with the higher buyin event, there were still some very poor players at my initial table. This was likely due to the fact that it took place on a Friday. My strategy for this event was to play tight at first in order to observe and see what the other players capabilities and tendencies were. With 9000 in chips, there is less pressure to pick up a hand early on and accumulate chips. I played very tight and this hand took place: An aggressive European player, on my right, open raised the pot to 225 in the second level, 50/100 blinds. I looked down at 2d2h. I opted to call and see the flop, in position, against an aggressive player, who would likely bet into me on multiple streets if I happened to flop a set of 2’s here. I called the 225, and the player in the cutoff seat(next to button) called, as well as the big blind, creating a pot of 950. The flop fell 2c5s6c. I hit my flop. A set is a very powerful hand in no limit hold’em. The big blind bet into the field 500. The pre-flop raiser folded his hand and the action was on me. This flop is connected with a flush draw, so there are a lot of turn cards which make my hand very vulnerable. The big blind seemed to be a competent player and I would guess that he’d lead into 3 people with a wide range of hands. I would guess he’d lead out with flush draws, straight draws, sets, and overpairs like 88 or 99. My hand beats almost all of the hands he’d call a preflop raise with and then bet into 3 people. With that being said, I want to keep him in the pot, and disguise the strength of my hand. I elected to just call the 500 bet. The player behind me raised to 1550 and only had 2000 left behind. The big blind called the 1550 and the action was back to me. I was positive that the player who raised and left 2000 behind was committed to the pot. Sticking with my plan when I called the original 500, I just called the 1550 here to play the pot in position against the big blind. The guy behind me is now irrelevant since I know he’s committed and I’ve also made the decision to be committed for his remaining 2k but not necessarily for the rest of my stack versus the big blind. The pot is now 5600. The turn is the Jc. The big blind checks, I check assuming the last guy is going to put in the rest of his chips. This gives me the opportunity to see what the big blind will do after the last guy goes allin. If the big blind raises, I’ll give him credit for a flush and lay down my hand. The last guy goes allin for his 2000 and the big blind folds. I’m getting almost 4 to 1 on my money. There is a decent chance that I have the best hand here, and if I do not I can improve to a fullhouse still and win the pot on the river. I call the 2000. With the cards face up, I’m up against 3c4c. The guy flopped the nut straight with a flush redraw and he hit the flush on the turn. The flush is irrelevant since he already had the best hand on the flop. The river was the 8s and I lost the pot. This is fine. There are a few notes here to mention. Flopping a set versus a short stacked player and him having a straight is fine. Sometimes the hands just play themselves, and when that flop hits all the money is going to get in the middle. Also, this player called a raise with 34 suited when he had only 3050 chips behind. This is a sure sign of a poor player. 34 is a poor hand to play, and when your stack is that short, you should be looking to play premium hands where you can double up easily instead of burning chips seeing flops with hands that are difficult to hit. Temporarily placing your chips in a player’s stack who is likely to give them back is not a bad proposition. Hopefully you get them back before he gives them to someone else.

After the first break my stack went down to 6000 as a result of the hand I mentioned. After the break I picked up a few spots and got my stack up to roughly 10k. With the blinds at 75/150, the under the gun +1 player raised the pot to 300. 2 players called and I was in the sb with AhKh. AK suited is a great hand, but I don’t really want to play it out of position versus 3 players for sure and possibly 4 if the bb also called the raise getting great potodds. I decided the best play was to raise. I reraised the pot to 1050. The bb folded and the original raiser raised again to 2150. The 2 original callers folded their hands and it was back to me. The guy had about 4700 chips left after his raise. Again we’re in a spot where the player is representing commitment to the pot. I have no problem gambling for the rest of his stack with AK suited. I elect just to call here and I’ll be shoving allin on flops with 2 hearts or all low cards. He’ll be committed to call if he has an overpair, but since we’re already dealing with commitment, it really doesn’t matter much whether it goes in pre-flop or post-flop. Thinking outside of the box, flat calling the 4 bet allows me to shove allin in front on the flop even if an A or K does not come and if he also has AK, which he will very often the way the hand played out pre-flop, I’m giving myself a chance to get him to fold the same hand and then I can win the pot as a bluff. The pot was 5050 and the flop fell 8h6s3h. With 2 hearts on board, I have the nutflush draw. Even if he has QQ in his hand I’ll be a favorite to win here with 15 outs and roughly a 56% chance to hit 1 and win the pot. I shove allin in front of him. I have more chips than him here so I am not at risk of busting out on this hand. He thinks for quite awhile which ensures to me that he has AK or AQ high, as I mentioned he’d be committed with an overpair and he would have called right away. This means we’re in very good shape. He’ll either be calling with AQ high which we beat or AK high which I’ll have a freeroll on since it’s the same hand but we have the flush draw which will give us the best hand. He calls the 4700 for his tournament life and exposes the AdKd. This is a great spot as we’re guaranteed a chop pot. The flush will come 35% of the time and I’ll bust this player and win the entire pot. The turn was the Qc and the river the 2s. We missed the flush and split the pot with the guy. The interesting thing about this hand is that I made this player make a very huge error when it comes to the math and his equity in the pot. Since the pot was 5050 and we had roughly that to bet, when I shoved allin he was getting about 2 to 1 on his money. Since he missed his pair of Aces and Kings on the flop he is in a spot where he has to call an allin with AK high. My hand range here consists of AK high or pocket pairs which beat his AK high. I’d play most of those hands in this fashion, shoving allin on the flop in front of him. So he is either behind with 6 outs and 2 cards to come, or he is calling hoping I also have AK and he will chop the pot. If I have a pocket pair, he has a 3 to 1 shot of drawing an A or K and winning the pot. As I mentioned, he’s getting 2 to 1 on his money which isn’t enough to justify a call. So this is definitely a losing spot for him. I feel that his call for his tournament life was basically a sign that he’d given up. Now, to the freeroll explanation: When we get allin on this flop, I have a 1 out of 3 chance to make the nutflush and win the pot. 2 of 3 times we will split the pot. This means 2x he calls the 4700 and gets back half the pot 2525, and the third time he loses everything and is out of the event.

1.       Win 2525

2.        Win 2525

3.       Lose 4700

2525*2=5050-4700=350/3=116.67 net profit

This player is now making a call for a net gain of 116.67 which is basically a breakeven bet, but he will be busted from the event 1 of 3 times. This is super high variance and is a large mistake with essentially no gain but being out of the tournament often. It was a fun hand and very fun to analyze. Cy and I talked about this one for quite a bit.

2 rounds later, the same player raised to 400 from the same position, 1 player called. I had AhQd in the sb. This is also a strong hand. Seeing how he played AK versus me in a similar spot, I chose not to reraise here. The big blind also called. The pot was 1600 and the flop fell 3s3c2s. This is a flop which likely missed everyone. I believe that AQ can be the best hand here a lot of the time, and if it isn’t, with my 2 over cards, I still can hit turn cards and win the pot. I bet 550 into the field. I would lead out here with a wide range of hands including 3’s, over pairs, straight draws, and flush draws. I think with this board, even if one of the players has a mid-range over pair, say TT for example, they wouldn’t be able to raise this flop because they don’t want to get reraised off the pot or be put in a spot where they may have to lay down the best hand if someone with a draw puts a lot of pressure on them. When I bet 550, the bb folded, the original raiser called the bet, which helps me define his hand, and the button player also called the 550. The pot is now 3250. The turn hit me hard with the Qc. Now I decide to check here to keep the middle pairs in the pot since they only have 2 outs and I want to get value from my hand. I check, and the preflop raiser bets 1700. The button player mucks, and it’s on me. I decided to just call and then lead the river for value. The pot is 6650 and I have 6600 left. With one potsized bet left I’m committed to this pot, most of the time unless the river is a spade. The river is the 9h. I bet out 1200. This bet is designed to get called by a pair lower than Q. With the Q and two 3’s on board, although I have a strong hand, middle pairs are going to have trouble calling a big bet here so I want to bet small enough to get called by a worse hand. Also, this bet looks very weak which may induce the player to bluff raise if he missed a flush draw and it’s the only way he can win the pot. The player responded to my small bet by putting me allin. I was kind of sick to my stomach, but I got what I wanted. I called for my tournament life and the player turned over pocket 9’s. He hit the 9 on the river and busted me from the event. With 2 nines in the deck, he had about a 4% chance to hit that river card, 1 in 25 times. Darn.

I have to admit, I was very disappointed in this spot. This was the biggest buyin event on my schedule and it hurts to go out in such a way, but this is part of the game. I took a chance by just calling his turn bet so that I could go for extra value on the river, knowing he usually has only a 2 outer here. Was it possible for me to laydown my hand? Maybe. With how I played the hand, it appears that my hand is very weak when in fact it is very strong on this board. And since inducing a raise from a missed draw was part of the reason for my small river bet, I think I have to call here. 24 out of 25 times I win in this spot so I can’t be too hard on myself. Now, what we have to do is analyze the turn play. The check is fine, when he bets and the button player folds, I can call or raise, and since I have just a potsized bet behind after the 1700, the raise would be an allin. After talk with friends, this is definitely the safest play. Is safe correct? I don’t know. He may put me on a flushdraw there and call with his pair in which I’d be getting all of the money in as a monster favorite to win the pot. As far as protecting my tournament life, the allin is probably best. When it comes to chip value and accumulation, I believe that keeping him in the pot with a 4% chance of him winning is the best play. Essentially I make the 1700 we bet on the turn as well as a bet on the river 24 times for every 1 time that I lose my remaining 6600 and the pot. That’s a profitable scenario. In poker, everything doesn’t always work out as we wish. Unfortunately this time it ended my tournament.

I learned a lot from this tournament in the short time it lasted, and I believe my thought processes are at a very deep level and although not perfect, there is good reason for every play I made. This is all we can do in poker; have good reason for the decisions we make and then have the conviction to proceed with the play we decide is appropriate.

I thank everyone for reading. I know that I have a lot of support in this venture as I receive texts daily from all of you regarding the events. My next tournament is tomorrow afternoon at 12pm. It is event #46, 2500 No limit hold’em. The WSOP has equipped each table with an IPad now for a ChipTic system. On every break, the dealers are updating chipcounts which upload to the WSOP.com website. So if you’re interested in following the chip counts in the early goings, it is available. Everyone have a wonderful evening and there’s a chance that I might be the owner of a WSOP bracelet come Wednesday night!

"I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."
-Michael Jordan